Saarloos vs Affeldt

This week the Reds signed Jeremy Affeldt to a one year deal worth about 3,000,000 dollars. Is he worth it? Is he a step up? What role will he fill?

He's a guy with decent stuff and some potential that hasn't yet been realized. He's known as a bit of a control guy who will throw strikes. The rumour is he will challange for a spot in the starting rotation. Failing that, he will be used out of the bullpen as a long reliever and occasional spot starter. Sound familiar? It should, the same was said about the signing of Kirk Saarloos last year.

So, let's compare...

Kirk Saarloos' Career....6 years, 28-30 record, 157 games, 482 IP, 5.00 ERA. With the Reds last year, Saarloos appeared in only 34 games. He threw a total of 42 innings. He managed, in that short time, to give up 8 HRs and hold a 7.17 ERA. He ended up making only 3 starts....which is probably for the best. He was supposed to be an insurance policy, a quality arm who could fill in when one of the starters went down. He ended up being just another guy standing on the mound and lobbing balls toward the plate. With how injured and ineffective the Reds rotation was last year, Saarloos had a great opportunity to come in and show what he could do. He showed it. It lead to him getting demoted to the Minors. He would get bounced back and forth between the Reds and the minors a couple of times last year. He totaled 18 appearances and 41 IP for Louisville last year.

Jeremy Affeldt's Career....6 years, 25-27 record, 286 games, 486 IP, 4.74 ERA. With the Rockies last year, Affeldt appeared in 75 games, threw 59 innings and held a respectable 3.51 ERA. He was an anchor in their bullpen. He also got some playoff experience as the Rockies shocked the world. Affeldt was suppose to be a young fire-balling starter when he first came up with KC. He's never really fulfilled that promise. He struggled as a starter. Most likely that's a product of being a starter for Kansas City rather than anything he did wrong. Since his transition to the pen upon moving to Colorado, he has been successful. The Reds claim he will fight for a spot in the rotation. His success as a starter has been limited.

Like most teams, the Reds need good arms coming out of the bullpen. That is where Affeldt should end up. He doesn't give up many HRs (only 3 in 59 IP last year). He walks more batters than he should (33 last year, about the same rate as Saarloos, actually). The Reds could use a solid starting pitcher, no doubt. What they need more than that is someone to bridge the gap between the starter and the back end of the bullpen. Cordero will be in the 9th, obviously. Weathers should hold down the 8th solidly. Those pesky 6th and 7th innings could provide some trouble, though, and this is where Affeldt could make his mark. Looking at their numbers, Affeldt is a step up from Saarloos....lower ERA, better HR/IP, better SO/IP, etc. Add to that, he's left handed. It will be intertesting to see if he is as significant of a step up from Saarloos as those numbers imply he will be. It is all going to rest on where he ends up. If they put him in the bullpen where he belongs, that contract will be worth every penny. If they try to use him as a starter, we should see him going the way of Saarloss, Milton and Lohse by the time the All-Star break rolls around. I just cannot understand why someone who has been so successful for the last season and a half as a relief pitcher would be considered as a potential starter.

How much do we need Bedard?

You cannot win a championship with bad starting pitching. That is one of the few statements about baseball that will always hold true. A potent offense can get you some success, no doubt. It may even get you into the playoffs. But good pitching shuts down good hitting consistently. If you want to build a championship caliber club, starting pitching is where to begin.

The Reds' starting rotation last year was every bit as bad as it has been in recent years. Harang was outstanding, of course. He finally garnered some Cy Young votes. Arroyo was little better than ok.....far too streaky. Belisle showed some flashes of brilliance and too many flashes of awfulness. Bailey is young and inexperienced. All four of them should be back in the rotation for 2008. Is that enough? Frankly, no.

The fifth spot will be given to Livingston or Volquez, most likely. I'm excited about Volquez. It makes me sad to say goodbye to Hamilton. The first game I attended at GABP I picked up a snazzy Josh Hamilton t-shirt. I love the kid. He's a great story, hits well and has a cannon for an arm. That said, Volquez destroyed minor league hitters in Texas' system. When he came up last year he showed some good stuff. He was inconsistent, but he's a rookie and that's to be expected. Johnny Cueto also gives fans a lot to be excited about. Hopefully he will be able to compete for the final starting spot.

The darkhorse final piece of the rotation is Erik Bedard. The trade rumors have been circling around for weeks now. It's said that the O's want two of the Reds' top four prospects. Adding someone of Bedard's ability might make Cincinnati's starting five the best in the division. Bedard may have won the AL Cy Young last year if injuries had not derailed him. Having Harang and Bedard as the 1-2 would put the Reds in serious contention for the division title. It would take some pressure off of Arroyo, Bailey and Belisle.

It would be a great move for the franchise. However, I think the asking price is too high. Votto and Bruce are the future of this franchise. For some teams it is acceptable and right to trade future value for present success (see the Tigers/Marlins deal). It's not right for this franchise at this time. Adding Cordero and solidifying the bullpen has already increased their chances to win the division enough. Every team needs a starting pitcher of Bedard's ability. The question is not really how much do you need him, but at what cost. And, in this instance, the cost is too high. The NL Central is the weakest division in baseball. The moves the Reds have already made have put them in a position to challenge for the division crown. The upside of Bedard is huge....high strikeout totals, low era, etc. What worries me about him is that he has never cracked the 200IP mark and his injury troubles last year. Can he be effective and good for 200+ innings? Can he make over 30 starts? Is he worth two of Bailey, Votto, Bruce and Cueto? The answer is probably no for each of those. We don't need him that much.

Welcome to Walt Jocketty

It's been announced today that the Reds have hired Walt Jocketty as a "special advisor" to Bob Castellini. That's rather exciting. He's a three time execitive of the year. He has over 30 years of experience in baseball. Jocketty put together several winning clubs and great trade deals as the GM for the Cardinals for the last 13 years. He will report directly to Castellini. The description of the position makes him sound like a co-GM, but officially he is only a special advisor. Jocketty had been in contact with several teams. He chose the Reds because the others would have had him answering to the GM and he has a working history with Castellini. According to an article on the Reds main site, Jocketty and Krivsky are on the same page with what they want to do with the club. I hope this goes well. Let's hope that Jocketty is not just the GM-in-waiting. Though, even if he is, we could do much, much worse than having Jocketty as our GM.