Not so great of a start....

Yesterday was the first game of the spring for the Reds. I'd been looking forward to it for months. I had such high hopes. There was some good, but there was a lot of bad too.

Jeremy Affeldt pitched pretty well. He threw two innings. He gave up 1 R and 3 H. I was most impressed by the fact that he didn't walk anyone. I'm not ready to give up my feeling that he belongs in the pen, but he pitched fairly well. Jim Brower and Jared Burton both had good, strong appearances. Gary Majewski, on the other hand....ouch. A 162.00 ERA is never good. I was disappointed with Jon Coutlangus too, but let's be fair to him. He came into a huge mess that Majewski had created. Gregg Dobbs is a far better hitter than most people realize.

Offensively, not much to say in the positive. Jay Bruce started things off with a single. Jeff Keppinger had a single. The one offensive highlight was Adam Rosales hitting a home run. When you're down 8-0, though, what does that matter?

Give Bruce a Chance!

The Reds are rumored to be pursuing Kenny Lofton. Apparently they want him to hit leadoff and play centerfield. There is little doubt that Lofton is one of the best leadoff hitters of his generation. The problem is that he is 40 years old and his generation is passed. Why would we want a 40 yr old CF? We have a "can't miss" prospect in Jay Bruce. We have Norris Hopper. We have Ryan Freel. All of whom are better options than Lofton.


Let's be honest, we need someone who can play well defensively and cover significant ground in CF. Griffey doesn't play the field as well as he once did. Unfortunately, Adam Dunn plays the field as well as he always has. Hopper and Freel can cover some huge amounts of ground out there. Either of them would make up for some lack of range in LF and RF. It's said that Bruce's range isn't fantastic. However, Jay Bruce had more HRs last year than Freel and Hopper have in their careers combined. As important as defnese is, you cannot win without pushing across some runs.

So, how important is a leadoff hitter? Is it important enough to justify signing a very seasoned veteran instead of taking a chance on a young prospect? I'm a fan of speed. I love the stolen base. I love bunting. I love anything that makes the defense move around. It creates holes. It creates opportunities for mistakes. It forces the defense to play perfectly and defenses don't always play perfectly. But a leadoff hitter is only guaranteed to hit leadoff once per game.

Jay Bruce is the future of this franchise. The Kenny Lofton of the 90's would be an All-Star on this team. But this is 2008. It's time for some youth and promise. Bruce is the only logical choice to play CF. Hopper and Freel both have a tremendous amount of value to the club. Freel can play the backup role at several positions. Hopper can be used at any of the OF spots, as a pinch runner, late-inning defensive replacement for Dunn or as a pinch hitter. We have no need of Lofton. If we're going to go out and sign another OF, then why was Josh Hamilton traded to Texas? I suppose it could be worse.....there are some suggestions that they've talked to Corey Patterson....

Happy Pitchers and Catchers Day

In about an hour pitchers and catchers report for the Cincinnati Reds. Baseball is almost here.

I'm going to take this opportunity to predict who will make the 25 man roster for opening day. Honestly, this is based more on what I would like to see than it is what I expect to see.

Lineup:

SS Jeff Keppinger
CF Jay Bruce
RF Ken Griffey, Jr.
2B Brandon Phillips
LF Adam Dunn
3B Edwin Encarnacion
1B Joey Votto
C Dave Ross

Bench:

C/1B Javier Valentin
SS Alex Gonzalez
OF Norris Hopper
OF/IF Ryan Freel
1B Scott Hatteberg

Rotation:

Aaron Harang
Bronson Arroyo
Homer Bailey
Edinson Volquez
Matt Belisle

Bullpen:

Francisco Cordero (CL)
David Weathers
Jared Burton
Todd Coffey
Bobby Livingston
Jeremy Affeldt
Jon Coutlangus

The most surprising thing is Jeff Keppinger occupying the leadoff spot. (Though some may argue that it is surprising to see him in the starting lineup at all.) Who would you rather see there? Norris Hopper and Ryan Freel are the most qualified for the job. There is talk about Brandon Phillips getting a shot. It works for Alfonso Soriano (the only other 2B to ever go 30-30). I like Keppinger's consistency. Gonzalez may be a better defensive shortstop, but Keppinger showed himself to be capable last year (at SS for 2007: 47 games, 390.2 innings, .989 FP, 2 E). He is no where near as streaky of a hitter as Alex Gonzalez is. I'd like to see his controlled swing and patience at the top of the lineup. Jay Bruce in the two hole? Basically, it boils down to having no where else to put him and no one else to hit there. Joey Votto all the way down at 7th? It's merely an attempt to not have three lefties hit back-to-back-to-back. That is also why Junior is in the three hole and Phillips is at cleanup instead of the other way around. The bench has a ton of experience and versatility. Freel can pretty much play anywhere. Valentin can play 1B if needed. I'm sure Gonzalez could sub at 2B or 3B (or Keppinger could slide to one of those and Gonzalez could play SS). Hopper provides solid backup at each of the OF spots and makes for a great late-inning pinch runner. One thing I would like to see is more power off of the bench. Maybe Craig Wilson makes the team and we have to cut back a bit on bullpen?

The rotation is fairly straight forward with no surprises. I wouldn't complain if Belisle and Livingston swapped places. I would be surprised if Johnny Cueto were to start out in the majors. I'll be shocked, annoyed, irritated and irrate if Jeremy Affeldt starts out in the rotation. There are rumors still that the Reds are going after Joe Blanton from Oakland. Josh Fogg is still jobless despite being effective for Colorado last year and having some good times in Pittsburgh. However, barring a surprise move, this should be the Reds' opening rotation. I cannot believe I am saying this.....I like our bullpen. Cordero solidifies the closer role. Weathers will be outstanding as a setup guy. Burton's stuff is electric and he has closer of the future written all over him. Coffey worries me a bit, but I have high hopes for him. Having three lefties in the pen is exciting. Affeldt provides us with some veteran stability from the left side (and the best part is he is not Mike Stanton). He can also be the long man if needed. Coutlangus, aside from his fantastic name, excites me almost as much as Burton does. Livingston is a good option for spot starting and soaking up innnings.

My prediction....89 wins and a second place finish. We have the bats, we have the arms. I just don't know that we have enough to overtake the Cubbies. If things go our way, who knows. If Bailey, Bruce and Votto can live up to the hype, who knows. It should be an exciting season.

Who's catching?

Outside of the pitching staff, the most glaring weakness the Reds had last year was behind the plate. The majority of the games in 2007 were caught by a combination of David Ross and Javier Valentin. For some unknown reason, the Reds insisted on carrying three catchers for parts of last season when they continuously called up Chad Moeller, Ryan Hanigan and Ryan Jorgensen also spent some time behind the plate for the Reds last year. That collection of players simply is not enough. Coming into the spring Ross and Valentin appear to be the favorites to make the roster. Chad Moeller has moved on to the Dodgers. Jorgensen and Hanigan are both under contract, but should start the season in the minors. That leaves us with the same catching tandem that caught 90% of the innings last year.

Before we look at what we have, let's see what we could have acquired. Ivan Rodriguez, Brad Ausmus, Michael Barrett, Ramon Castro, Jason Kendall, Paul Lo Duca, Jorge Posada, Jose Molina and Yorvit Torrealba were all, potentially, free agents. Rodriguez, Castro, Torrealba, Barrett, Molina, and Posada all remained with their teams. That left Lo Duca (signed with Washington) and Kendall (signed with Milwaukee) on the free agent market. Honestly, not a very appealing thought. A couple of catchers could have been had via trade. Brian Schneider went from the Nationals to the Mets. Johnny Estrada went from Milwaukee to the Met. The Mets then released him and he signed with the Nationals. Pitchers and catchers report in less than a week, it seems any hope of fixing our catching problem via trade or free agency is gone. It will have to be done in house.

On the current active roster the Reds have Ross, Valentin, Hanigan, and Craig Tatum. Three catchers have been invited to spring training as non-roster invitees: Paul Bako, Alvin Colina and Chris Kroski. None of these players inspire the excitement that a Victor Martinez or Russell Martin would. We are going to be mediocre at best when it comes to catchers. Ross is the best bet. His bat can be a big plus in the lineup. He provides some power. The thing is, the Reds already have enough power. What they need is a defensive catcher who can call a good game and keep the other team's running attack down. That is why the Reds should have gone after Brian Schneider. Valentin was primarily used as a switch hitting pinch hitter under Jerry Narron. Once Pete Mackanin took over he started seeing more time behind the plate and improved defensively. Valentin had only 2 HRs in 243 ABs. Ross had 17 in 311 ABs. However, Ross barely ended the season above the Mendoza line and spent much of the season under it. Valentin at least provides a decent average (.276 in 2007, .251 for his career). We may as well ignore completely Bako, Colina, Kroski, Tatum and Hanigan. Unless one of them makes some shocking strides in the spring, they will be sent to the minors or released outright. Of that group, Hanigan has the best chance of pulling of the miracle considering the time he spent with the club last year; it's hard to be too excited about him considering he only played five major league games last year.

Offensively, Ross' big plus is his power. The upside for Valentin is his higher average and his ability to hit from both sides. Defensively, there's not a huge difference. Valentin caught 471.2 innings last year. He ended the season with a .997 FP (1 error), but a glaring 8 passed balls. Ross spent 837.1 innings behind the plate. He recorded a .993 FP (5 errors) and had 6 passed balls. If we could somehow combine Valentin's offense and Ross' defense, we'd have an acceptable receiver. Barring that, I think the only way to approach this is the same way we did last year. Ross will get the majority of the starts. Valentin will be used to give him a rest every few days and will be used as a pinch hitter. Ross is better defensively, but not significantly. Once Valentin got a chance to start more frequently under Mackanin, his defense improved. Maybe we can hope that he will blossom under Dusty Baker and become a solid catcher. I think that's too much to ask. It appears we can look forward to another season of mediocrity behind the plate. The best we can hope for is that Ross can approach his 2006 BA of .255 and stay far away from his 2007 results. In fact, if we can get the David Ross of 2006 (90 games, 247 AB, 21 HR, .255 BA, .985 FP, 8 E, 4 PB), things may not be as bleak as I imagine.

There is a bright spot. The Reds took five catchers in the 2007 draft. At least they realize this is a problem position and are taking some steps to improve.

Phillips faces arbitration

The crooked hat....the huge, infectious smile....the overwhelming aura of fun.....You just have to love the way Brandon Phillips plays. In what turned out to be a steal, he was acquired by the Reds in April of 2006 for minor leaguer Jeffrey Stevens. He was seen as a guy with all of the ability in the world, but too many problems to harnass that ability and excel on the field. He has proven people wrong since coming to Cincinnati. In 2007, he was easily the Reds' MVP and the best all around second baseman in the majors. He became just the third Red to go 30-30 and set a club record for most home runs by a second baseman. His numbers for last year were quite impressive:

AVG .288
Runs 106
Hits 187
2B 26
3B 6
HR 30
RBI 94
SB 32
SLG .485
FP .990

The most astounding number, by far, is his salary.....$407,500 for 2007. He was one of the best bargains in the majors last year. Now he is eligible for arbitration. He is asking for 4.2 million. The Reds have countered with 2.7 million. Due to the way MLB's arbitration works, he will get one or the other of these numbers. He deserves much more. Recently he was quoted as saying he wanted to be the next Barry Larkin (he actually said he would like to be better than Barry) and finish his career in Cincinnati. He brings so much excitement to the game. He is an All-Star caliber player, a team leader and a threat in every facet of the game. The Reds are silly for even arguing. The best player on the team wants to spend his entire career in the same uniform, sign him already.

I would like to think that the Reds will follow the Twins lead. Justin Morneau avoided arbitration by signing a one year deal worth 7.5 million. A week later they completed a deal that locks him up for six years at 80 million. When it comes to this arbitration hearing, it doesn't matter whether the Reds win or lose. What matters is what they do next. They need to get Phillips signed long term before he becomes too expensive. If they can get a six or seven or eight year deal worth about 10 million a year, they should be happy.