How much do we need Bedard?

You cannot win a championship with bad starting pitching. That is one of the few statements about baseball that will always hold true. A potent offense can get you some success, no doubt. It may even get you into the playoffs. But good pitching shuts down good hitting consistently. If you want to build a championship caliber club, starting pitching is where to begin.

The Reds' starting rotation last year was every bit as bad as it has been in recent years. Harang was outstanding, of course. He finally garnered some Cy Young votes. Arroyo was little better than ok.....far too streaky. Belisle showed some flashes of brilliance and too many flashes of awfulness. Bailey is young and inexperienced. All four of them should be back in the rotation for 2008. Is that enough? Frankly, no.

The fifth spot will be given to Livingston or Volquez, most likely. I'm excited about Volquez. It makes me sad to say goodbye to Hamilton. The first game I attended at GABP I picked up a snazzy Josh Hamilton t-shirt. I love the kid. He's a great story, hits well and has a cannon for an arm. That said, Volquez destroyed minor league hitters in Texas' system. When he came up last year he showed some good stuff. He was inconsistent, but he's a rookie and that's to be expected. Johnny Cueto also gives fans a lot to be excited about. Hopefully he will be able to compete for the final starting spot.

The darkhorse final piece of the rotation is Erik Bedard. The trade rumors have been circling around for weeks now. It's said that the O's want two of the Reds' top four prospects. Adding someone of Bedard's ability might make Cincinnati's starting five the best in the division. Bedard may have won the AL Cy Young last year if injuries had not derailed him. Having Harang and Bedard as the 1-2 would put the Reds in serious contention for the division title. It would take some pressure off of Arroyo, Bailey and Belisle.

It would be a great move for the franchise. However, I think the asking price is too high. Votto and Bruce are the future of this franchise. For some teams it is acceptable and right to trade future value for present success (see the Tigers/Marlins deal). It's not right for this franchise at this time. Adding Cordero and solidifying the bullpen has already increased their chances to win the division enough. Every team needs a starting pitcher of Bedard's ability. The question is not really how much do you need him, but at what cost. And, in this instance, the cost is too high. The NL Central is the weakest division in baseball. The moves the Reds have already made have put them in a position to challenge for the division crown. The upside of Bedard is huge....high strikeout totals, low era, etc. What worries me about him is that he has never cracked the 200IP mark and his injury troubles last year. Can he be effective and good for 200+ innings? Can he make over 30 starts? Is he worth two of Bailey, Votto, Bruce and Cueto? The answer is probably no for each of those. We don't need him that much.