The Canadian Club Knocks Three Times

One, Two, Three....Joey Votto slammed three home runs against the Cubs on Wednesday. It was beautiful. It's surprising that Dusty Baker has had the sense to start Votto over veteran Scott Hatteberg. I am thankful. It is out of character for him, though. Normally he'll stick to the struggling veteran regardless of how promising or productive the rookie is. This was Votto's best game as a pro. On top of the three homers, he also had a walk and his first stolen base of the season. I have to admit, that is one of the things that excites me most about Votto. He's huge. He plays first. However, he's got decent speed. He could end up being like Derrek Lee or like Jeff Bagwell in his prime. He's not going to steal 50 bags or anything, but if he chooses his spots well, he has the ability to nab 20.

The Reds hit seven home runs in all. In the second inning, Votto, Adam Dunn and Paul Bako each had solo shots and Jerry Hairston, Jr. added a 2-run blast. In the fifth, Brandon Phillips and Votto went back-to-back with solo homers. Votto hit his third shot in the sixth.

What went greatly overlooked during the home run derby was another outstanding performance by Edinson Volquez. He's allowed 1 or fewer earned runs in every start this season. His ERA is a paltry 1.06. That leads the NL and is second only to Cliff Lee in the majors. He also struck out 10 batters.....he is now leading the majors in strikeouts with 52. The only complaint that one can reasonably make against him is his walk rate. He's walked 24 batters in 42.1 innings. That is too high. However, they're not coming around to score. It does cause his pitch count to rise and prohibits him from pitching as deep into games as I would like to see. That said, in his last four starts he has gone 7 innings three times and the other he lasted six.

Best quote of the day and the most telling reason for Volquez's success so far this season: “The last two years, I haven’t thrown the ball like I’m throwing right now,” Volquez said. “Every pitch I throw, I’ve got a reason for throwing. Before, I’d just throw a pitch.”

1-9, 1-3, 3-0, E-5 (8)

The Reds are in the middle of their 10th series of the year. This is the first time that they have won the first game of a series. What an odd stat. Yet, it's true.

Bronson Arroyo got his first victory of the season last night. He is now 1-3. A turning point in the season for him? Probably not. He still pitched horribly. He was still very hittable. His control was still erratic. He was the same old Arroyo, just with a different result.

The Reds put together three consecutive wins for the first time this season. It's a small streak, but still a streak.

Edwin Encarnacion made his 8th error of the season. 27 games into the season and he has 8 errors. That puts him on pace for 48. That disgusts me. Can we please have Ryan Freel starting at 3rd from now on? Please. We don't have a right-handed bat coming off of the bench that puts any fear at all in the heart of a middle reliever or closer. Encarnacion, despite his defensive woes, would answer that need just a little. Please.

Coffey Optioned and other thoughts

It's about time. Todd Coffey was optioned to Louisville today. He has been awful this year. Bill Bray gets the call up. Apparently Bray has been on fire for Louisville so far this season. Hopefully he can continue that with the big club.

Carrying three catchers is about the dumbest thing a franchise can do. We have Paul Bako, David Ross and Javier Valentin right now. One of them needs to go. Bako has been surprisingly complete this year. I don't think anyone doubted his ability to call a game and play well defensively. His offense has been a welcome surprise. He shouldn't go anywhere except out behind the plate four out of every five days. Ross is coming off of injury. He's not a liability behind the plate or next to it. But he's not a great asset either. He's acceptable defensively. He hits for a low average, but with occasional power. I'll take it. The best you can say about Valentin is that he's a great pinch-hitter. Every time he is behind the plate, the pitchers look lost, confused and unconfident, especially when it comes to the bullpen. This is particularly bad considering he typically comes in as a pinch-hitter late in the game and mostly deals with pitchers out of the pen. Hopefully management will do the right thing and trade or demote him soon. There is no good reason to carry three catchers.

Good Morning Brandon Phillips. I would like to extend a personal thank you to the San Francisco Giants for waking up Mr. Phillips. He went 6-12 with 3 HR against SF.

Edwin Encarnacion is still on pace for about 50 errors. Sure, he leads the team in HR. Sure, one of those even was hit to me (7th inning, solo shot, last Monday against the Dodgers; first home run ball I have ever gotten). I don't care. There is nothing you can do with your bat that will make up for 50 errors. Please, do something. He makes some phenomenal plays. He makes gold glove caliber plays. And then he boots things that an A-Ball player would make with ease. It is painful to watch.

Base running is important. Maybe Corey Patterson and Jerry Hairston, Jr. didn't get the memo. Last week they got picked off of first in consecutive innings. It was embarrassing. If you're going to run, then run. If you're not going to run, don't dance around like you're going to. Good catchers will take advantage of that and so will good pitchers. It was nice to see Patterson get 2 steals against the Giants. maybe he will start running more? But how much can you really run when you have an OBP that is sub-.300?

Drop Adam Dunn already. I don't understand. Joey Votto is hitting well. Flipping them in the batting order would be great. Votto could provide more protection for Ken Griffey, Jr. or Phillips. Dunn shouldn't be hitting above 7th with his .200 AVG. An even better idea is to bat Dunn in front of the pitcher. Despite his paltry average, he is still getting on base at a great rate. He just isn't hitting. He especially isn't hitting with runners in scoring position, but, then again, who expected him to suddenly learn how to do that? Putting him in the 8 hole would mean that about 35-40% of the time there would be a runner on first for the pitcher to bunt over. It also means that fewer opening innings would end with him striking out with runners on.

Aaron Harang, Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto have been lights out. Any other starter just makes you wish the lights were out so that you wouldn't have to see the slop they're lobbing up there. It's time to do something about Bronson Arroyo. He isn't getting the job done. He's the poor man's Barry Zito at this point. It's time to move him to the pen or move him to someone else's rotation or move him to Louisville. Homer Bailey deserves his chance.

Speaking of deserving his chance, can we please see Jay Bruce in centerfield some time soon? I cannot stand to watch Patterson any more. Let's find out what Bruce can do. He cannot do any worse than Patterson. If he is anywhere near as good as everyone seems to think, he's bound to have an OBP over .300. Patterson is an average at best defensive player, it shouldn't be too much to ask for Bruce to be able to match that.

It's time for change. We're 11-15, things aren't working. Something has to change.

Take that, Lefty

The Reds won their first game since last Thursday. They actually did it against a lefty. Does it still count that the lefty was Ted Lilly? As far as the standings are concerned, thankfully, it does.

Edinson Volquez struggled. His numbers don't glaringly show it. He gave up 1 run in 5 innings. He struck out 7. However, he walked 4 and 64 of his 122 pitches were out of the strikezone. The only run he gave up was on a bases-loaded walk to Ted Lilly, yes, the pitcher. It's hard for me to blame him, though. The strikezone was tiny and inconsistent. No matter what the ump is doing, 112 pitches in 5 innings is too many and 5 innings are too few. He needs to get more efficient with his stuff. I love that he wants to strikeout every guy that steps to the plate. However, it would be nice to see him pitch to contact and get some easy outs.

596. Ken Griffey, Jr. is good.

It was nice to see that Dusty gave Joey Votto the start against the lefty. Maybe they're going to finally put him out there and leave him out there. Platooning him with Scott Hatteberg isn't helping anyone. Votto responded well today. He had a double and a homer in 4 ABs while matching his career high with 5 RBIs.

Edwin Encarnacion had another error, way to keep on pace for 50 Edwin.

Todd Coffey had another shaky outing. It's time for a trip to Louisville. Matt Belisle is pitching well and should be available soon. Josh Fogg should move to the pen to take Coffey's spot. Belisle can take Fogg's spot in the rotation. I'd also like to see Javier Valentin sent down in favor of David Ross. The thought of carrying three catchers make me shudder. Valentin has not been handling the pitching staff well. Paul Bako just keeps hitting (go figure) and he's been playing some great defense and calling great games.

Disgusting, absolutely disgusting

If you want to be considered a good team, you have to beat up on the teams that are worse than you. I don't just mean splitting 4 game sets or taking 2 out of 3. Basically, you have to do what the Pirates did to the Reds this weekend. Dominate them. Shut them out. Sweep them: 1-0 on Friday, 4-3 on Saturday and a soul-crushing 9-1 on Sunday. What makes it so saddening is that the Pirates are not the better team and should not be able to do that. The Reds looked good coming off a series win in Milwaukee. They looked awful in Pittsburgh. So, what was the problem?

The main concern is leaving too many runners left on base. In the Pittsburgh series they left 32 runners on base. This includes leaving 12 on in the 1-0 loss Friday night and 11 in the 4-3 loss on Saturday. That is just disgusting. Edwin Encarnacion left 7 on base Friday night all by himself. He is now hitting .179 on the season.

Saturday was bad. 11 runners were left on base. To add to that, 3 errors were made. Encarnacion accounted for a mere 4 runners left on on Saturday. However, he also got credit for 2 of the errors. That gives him 4 errors. He is on pace for about 50 this year.

So, what am I getting at? It's time to bench Encarnacion. Ryan Freel can play third. He can hit 8th. Corey Patterson is doing well enough hitting leadoff. Jeff Keppinger is being an awesome number 2 hitter. It's time for some changes. The batting order should go something along the lines of

CF Corey Patterson
SS Jeff Keppinger
RF Ken Griffey, Jr.
2B Brandon Phillips
1B Joey Votto
LF Adam Dunn
C Paul Bako
3B Ryan Freel
P

Dropping Dunn down to #6 would take some pressure off of him. He's hitting a robust .167 right now. He is leaving an astounding number of runners on base. He has one HR. Of course, this would all be a temporary fix. Once Alex Gonzalez comes back, he should resume his place at SS and bat 7th. Keppinger can then take over at 3B. This would allow Freel to be the super-sub that he excels at so much.

The other big problem about these last three days....short outings by the starters. Edinson Volquez pitched only 5 innings on Friday. Bronson Arroyo pitched five innings on Saturday. Johnny Cueto pitched 6 innings on Sunday. They need to stay out there longer. Now, Friday there was a lengthy rain delay and that's why Volquez was replaced. Sunday, Cueto just didn't have has A-game and he still threw 6. To be fair, Arroyo coming out of Saturday's game was a strategy decision. He was pinch-hit for with two outs and two on. But back to back to back short outings are never good. It asks too much of the bullpen. Thanks to the baseball gods that Aaron Harang threw 8 innings on Thursday and today is an off day.

Hey, look, it's an offense!

Cincinnati
AB R H RBI BB K LOB Season Avg
C. Patterson cf 5 2 3 2 1 0 0 .323
R. Freel 3b-rf 5 0 2 1 0 0 5 .176
K. Griffey Jr. rf 4 3 2 1 1 1 2 .357
J. Castro 3b 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000
B. Phillips 2b 5 2 2 0 1 1 2 .316
A. Dunn lf 2 2 1 3 2 1 0 .160
K. Mercker p 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000
T. Coffey p 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000
J. Keppinger ss 3 1 1 2 1 1 3 .382
S. Hatteberg 1b 2 0 1 1 2 0 2 .125
J. Valentin c 4 1 1 1 1 0 3 .333
J. Fogg p 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 .000
J. Votto ph 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 .250
M. Lincoln p 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000
N. Hopper ph-lf 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 .200
Totals 36 12 14 11 9 5 19

I expect more games like this in the future. Do you know what excites me most about last night's offensive output? SF - A Dunn , S Hatteberg , R Freel , J Keppinger....count 'em, four Sac Flys. That means there were four occasions in which the Reds drove in runners from third with less than two outs. There are few things worse than leaving a runner there when you don't even need a hit to score him.

Josh Fogg pitched ok. He gave up 3 runs in 5 innings. Two of those were scored on a rare error by Brandon Phillips. My only real complaint is that he only went 5 innings. We're relying on the pen too much. I'd like to see the starters go deeper into games. However, it isn't really Fogg's fault last night. Dusty pulled him for a pinch hitter to try and turn a good inning into a soul-crushing inning.

Any coincidence that this offensive outburst happens when Edwin Encarnacion is on the bench?

Can we please stop sending Todd Coffey out to the mound? He's a crooked number waiting to happen everytime he sprints out there. Why does he sprint out there?

Bye Jon....

The Reds and the Diamondbacks made a minor league trade yesterday. The Diamondbacks get Jon Coutlangus. The Reds get Daniel Perales.

This makes me sad. I like Coutlangus. Truth be told, what I like most is his name. But I also appreciated the rookie season he turned in last year. I thought he could have made the time this spring. I would much rather see him coming out of the bullpen than Todd Coffey.

As for Mr. Perales....I've never heard of him. He played in a rookie league and in A-ball last year. He plays OF. In 809 minor league ABs, he has 23 HR, 131 RBI, 135 SO, .279 AVG, 19 SB. Those aren't overwhelming numbers. Seems a shame to trade a left-handed relief pitcher who has had some success in the majors for a 23 yr old OF who has never played above A-ball.

Perales is being sent to Sarasota.

Thanks Jimmy!

Well, that was definitely Paul Bako's best day as a Red. Then again, considering the type of player he is, maybe catching Johnny Cueto outranks this. Bako had three singles in four ABs. He also drove in the winning run in the bottom of the ninth.

He shouldn't have had a chance to drive in that run. Norris Hopper dropped down a perfect sacrifice to put runners at 2nd and 3rd with one out. For some unknown reason Charlie Manuel, the Phillies' manager, decided to not intentionally walk Bako. It would have brought up Joey Votto with the bases loaded. It would have given them a force at every plate. It would have given them a chance to get the double play and go into the 10th. Instead, he decided to have Chad Durbin pitch to Bako. I'd like to think it's because he fears Votto, but who knows. Bako hit a dribbler to short. Jimmy Rollins fielded the ball, double clutched and threw to first. Not that it matters, but Bako was safe at first. Rollins needed to go home. The double play was not a real possibility, their only hope was getting the runner at home. Once Rollins decided to go to first instead of home, the game was over.

So, thanks Jimmy, we couldn't have won it without you!

Corey Patterson is doing everything he can to make me not hate him. He stole a base in the first after drawing a leadoff walk. He hit a game-tying solo home run with two outs in the 8th. His OBP is still awful for the year. His AVG is still awful for the year. However, he's playing a decent centerfield. He's had a couple of big home runs. When he's getting on base he's running. He is doing everything he can to make me not hate him. I'm not there yet.

Now, as much as I love late-game heroics, they should have been unnecessary. Aaron Harang pitched well, for the most part. He handled damage control well. He was not overpowering. The worst part of his outing was his inability to lay down sacrifice bunts. In the 2nd, he tried to bunt. It resulted in a 1-5-3 DP. I don't know that I have ever seen a 1-5-3 DP, but there it was. He tried to lay down another bunt in the fifth. This time he popped it up. Had either of these bunts been successful, the Reds may have been able to push across a couple of runs. It frustrates me when people cannot bunt. It is especially frustrating when it is a starting pitcher.

Wow....just, wow.

The rain didn't matter. The cold didn't matter. The fact that he was making his MLB debut didn't matter. Johnny Cueto was on fire.

He threw seven innings. The first five were perfect. He gave up a solo home run to Justin Upton to lead off the sixth. That ended the perfecto, but didn't quell the magic. He struck out ten Diamondbacks and didn't walk anyone. The HR was the only hit he gave up. He was amazing. It was fun to watch. Cueto was pouring in 93-96 mph gas and mixing in a deadly slider and change to baffle the D-back hitters.

Most impressive stat of the game....92 pitches, 68 for strikes.

It's About Time

I figured it would be sometime early. Honestly, I thought it would be game one. Instead, it took until the final inning of game two. No, I am not talking about Edwin Encarnacion getting his first hit. I am talking about the first time I ask, "Dusty, what are you thinking?"

Here's the scenario....Arizona 5, Cincinnati 3....Brandon Lyon is on the mound. We have Brandon Phillips, Adam Dunn and Encarnacion coming up to the plate. Phillips gets a single. Dunn gets a single. Encarnacion strides to the plate. He is hitless on the season. He's made two errors already this season, both have cost the team runs. He looked lost at the plate all spring. So, what does Dusty do? He puts on the bunt. What?!?

Maybe it's because Dusty is new and doesn't know Encarnacion that well. He cannot bunt. Asking him to bunt would be like using Javier Valentin as a pinch runner. Also, as bad as he may be at times, he has a knack for driving in big runs. He gets better in the clutch. The worst thing about him bunting would be if he were successful. If he lays down a good bunt, he'll move Phillips and Dunn to 2nd and 3rd. That will bring Joey Votto up to the plate with first base open. Lyon would then walk Votto and the game would rest on the shoulders of Paul Bako (or Valentin as a pinch hitter, unless Juan Castro or Scott Hatteberg got the call). With the pitchers spot coming up sixth in the inning, we would have seen Valentin and Hatteberg certainly. Ultimately, though, you would take the bat out of the hands of Encarnacion and Votto. Both of them can put the ball in the seats. Both of them can drive balls into the gap. That is reason number one why Encarnacion should not be bunting.

Now, if you're serious about having a bunt laid down in that situation, pinch hit for Encarnacion. He is awful at it. In 327 career games, he has never had a sacrifice bunt. If the bunt is that important, get someone who can do it to do it. Pinch hit with Castro, then he can play SS and Jeff Keppinger can slide over to 3B. Pinch hit with one of the starting pitchers, then have Hatteberg hit in the pitcher's spot. Then you could have the new pitcher take Votto's spot in the lineup, Hatteberg at 1B, Castro at SS and Keppinger at 3B. Do something. Do something other than ask Encarnacion to bunt.

The final reason to not have Encarnacion bunt....Atonement. He needed to make up for the error in game one that allowed a run and the error in this game that allowed a run.

But Dusty ignores all of that logic. Instead, we get Encarnacion flailing at balls and taking strikes because he's trying to lay down a bunt. He stabs at the ball instead of trying to catch the ball with the bat. He almost gets Brandon Phillips picked off at 2B. Finally, with two strikes on him, Dusty takes the bunt off. Encarnacion gets to swing away.....and swing he does. He puts a ball into the seats in left and the Reds win. It was great. The place erupted (well, as much as 8,000 people can erupt).

Other thoughts on the game:

Keppinger is unstoppable. He just hits and hits and hits. He even stole a base. He may be my favorite Red right now. Sadly, I cannot seem to find a Keppinger jersey for sale. Go figure.

Bako had a beautiful pick off at 1B. Orlando Hudson was taking a a bit too generous of a secondary lead. Bako threw behind him. Votto applied a great tag.

Dan Haren is annoying. I've nothing personal against him. He's a great pitcher. He's a surprisingly good hitter. I'd love to have him on the Reds. However, he has this hesitation in his delivery. He lifts up his leg and just pauses. It's annoying.

Kent Mercker's return to the mound was damn fun to watch. He pitched a perfect 8th and got two strikeouts. He looked good out there.

Jeremy Affeldt did not have a great Reds debut...24 pitches, only 12 for strikes. He walked two batters and gave up a hit in the ninth with the the Reds already down by two. That is not good.

Bronson Arroyo needs to remember that there are two sides to the plate. It was a chilly, chilly night. He should have been pounding the ball inside with his fastball and then making them reach outside and low for his curve and changeup. Instead, he just kept the ball on the outside half of the plate for the whole game. he did not look so good.

The Most Wonderful Day of the Year

Opening Day....finally.

There was rain. There was a lot of rain. The game was delayed by an hour. Eventually the rain lessened and ceremonies got underway. The rain didn't really stop for good until the second inning or so.

The highlight of the pregame was the tribute to Joe Nuxhall. Every uniformed person on the Reds team was wearing a #41 Nuxhall jersey when they came out to be introduced before the game. The jerseys will be auctioned off for charity. Unlike everyone else, Aaron Harang kept his on for the whole game. It was a very special moment, a great tribute.

The matchup of Aaron Harang vs Brandon Webb was everything it should have been. These are two of the top five pitchers in the NL. They both pitched exceptionally well today. Harang gave up three runs (two earned) on only three hits and two walks. He struck out six. The third inning was tough. He gave up two solo home runs (one to Eric Byrnes and one to Chris Young) and he walked two. On the bright side, he got the last ten men he faced out. Despite the one rough inning, he finished strongly. Brandon Webb was Brandon Webb. Very few balls were hit in the air. He got a ton of ground balls. He struck out six also. He did walk four, which is odd for him.

The two best ABs in the game were had by Edwin Encarnacion. I'm not a fan of him. I would love to see Ryan Freel starting at 3B. When Alex Gonzalez gets healthy, I would love to see Jeff Keppinger slide over to 3B. I don't trust Encarnacion to routinely put together good ABs. He looked absolutely awful during spring training. He looked clueless at the plate right up until the second inning. He'd made an error in the top of the 1st (to be fair, the ball was slippery because of the conditions and the throw sailed on him). He had to atone. I wish I could say he drove one deep to the left field seats, but it wasn't anything that dramatic. However, he did coax a walk out of Webb. He took some close pitches. He looked like a real hitter, which is nice to see. His second plate appearance was more of the same. He was able to work another walk out of Webb It may not seem like much, but I think those two ABs were huge. It was like he knew exactly what he was looking for up there. He showed some patience at the plate.

The defensive player of the game for the Reds was Corey Patterson. It's like bizzaro world. For some reason Patterson played like a real centerfielder. He made a couple mistakes. He took a bad angle on a couple balls. He made a wrong first move on a couple balls. On a flyball late in the game, Ken Griffey, Jr. had to cut in front of him and snag the fly because Patterson didn't seem to know where it was. That said, he made a couple of spectacular plays. Patterson actually laid out for a ball. He actually dove....and he caught it. He also made two great catches running back to the wall in center. All in all, I was impressed with his first day as the Reds' centerfielder.

The two best defensive plays were turned in by Orlando Hudson, though. He showed why he has won three Gold Gloves. The first one was a little ducksnort that was too short for Chris Young. Hudson sprinted into short center and made a beautiful over the shoulder catch as he was running away from the infield. As much as I wanted it to drop, it was a fantastic play. In the fifth inning, with Aaron Harang up at the plate, Hudson made another terrific grab. Harang ended up getting a single out of it, but Hudson sure made it exciting. He had to range deep to his right before diving for the ball, popping up, turning and letting loose a perfect throw. Thankfully Harang was hustling all the way and managed to just barely beat it out, but it was a pretty dive and throw regardless.

All in all, it was a great day. It was Opening Day, how could it not be? This was my first ever Opening Day game. I hope to go to a ton more. The only word that could really describe my feelings leading up to the first pitch is "giddy". I was sitting there in my bleacher seat trying to ignore the rain and trying to just take everything in. I loved it. The crowd was great, the game was great, the weather sucked, the final score sucked.

Bye, bye Stanton....

It's done. Well, it's about to be done, anyway. Those of us who really love the Reds have been praying and waiting and begging for Mike Stanton to be reassigned to Louisville (or even lower, just get him out of Cincinnati). The day is almost here. The Reds announced yesterday that they would be cutting Mike Stanton. This is even better. He's not going to go down and stink up the Bats pen. He's getting released.

I love this move for two reasons.

Stanton had a 1-3 record and a 5.93 ERA last year. When he came in, the fans just sighed and cringed. No one had any confidence in him. He couldn't get lefties out, they hit .306 against him last year. He was even worse against righties. It is time for him to go.

The main reason this makes me happy is the message it sends. This move will cost the franchise about 3-4 million dollars. Stanton is owed 3 million this year. They also have to cover the option they had for 2009. Getting Stanton off of the roster costs them a ton of money. Their willingness to do it sends the message that winning is more important. If Stanton had opened the season in Cincinnati's pen, no one would have blinked twice. Any questions about his ability would have been answered with, "Well, he's got a gauranteed contract." Most people would have just shrugged their shoulders, nodded their heads and understood. This is a business. By cutting Stanton they are placing ability over contract status. This is a great, great thing to see.


Note....to give credit where it is due....the picture up there is stolen from Church of Baseball.

It's the end of the world....

Seriously? That's my first thought when I read this article. My next question: So, why did we trade Josh Hamilton? The Reds have signed Corey Patterson and Jerry Hairston, Jr. What, exactly, we're they thinking. We already have a huge cluster at CF. Ryan Freel, Norris Hopper and Jay Bruce are battling it out. Now we can throw Corey "I've never even remotely lived up to my potential" Patterson into the mix. If we were going to have a fourth player battling for the centerfield slot, it should be Josh Hamilton. Granted, I love Edinson Volquez.....I love him dearly. I long to see him filling a rotation spot come March 31st. I'm disappointed that Hamilton's in Texas, but I am enthralled at the prospect of Volquez pitching in a Reds uniform. I wonder if we can ship Patterson and Hairston to Texas and get Hamilton back.

But let's talk about Corey Patterson. When he came up with the Cubbies he was supposed to be the next big thing. He was the baseball equivalent of sliced bread. In fact, he's been the next Jerome Walton except Patterson never won a ROY award. His avergaes for a 162 game season.....258 AVG/ .298 OBP/ 82 R/ 18 HR/ 62 RBI/ 32 SB. The theory is he will provide a spark at the top of the lineup that none of the other potential CFs can give. Yup, that sub-.300 OBP is supposed to provide a spark. What I really want in a leadoff guy is for him to get on base fewer than three times out of every ten. His SB totals are nice. That's about all that can be said about him. His power isn't overwhelming. His run totals are pathetic for a guy that bats #1. He's not a liability in the OF. Well, his FP makes it appear that he isn't. However, if you watch him play, you'll see otherwise. He gets bad reads on balls. He doesn't lay out for balls. He's got a good arm, but he isn't fundamentally sound when it comes to knowing toward which base to throw the ball once he's fielded it off the bounce. I ranted recently about how much I wanted Jay Bruce to get a shot at CF. If he doesn't, it won't be the end of the world if Hopper or Freel end up there. It will be if somehow Patterson makes the team and "wins" the job. It must be nice to be a Dusty Baker guy, at least you always have a job. Just wait, if he has his way, the opening OF will be Corey Patterson in CF, Sammy Sosa in RF and Barry Bonds in LF.

As for Hairston.....just no, please no. He plays a little OF. He came up at 2B. So, where does he fit? How many OFs do we have? The answer: Too Many. Do we need him at 2B? Who do we have at 2B? Oh, that's right, our best all-around player, Brandon Phillips. On those rare days when Phillips needs a day off, Freel and Jeff Keppinger can fill in and do a far better job than Hairston. If Keppinger's at SS and Freel's at CF that day, throw Juan Castro or Jolbert Cabrera in at 2B. All in all, Hairston is simply unnecessary. Having Hairston on the MLB roster is about as smart as carrying three catchers.

Basically, this signing is a waste of money. Neither player is necessary, desirable, productive or an improvement over what the club already has. Sure, they were signed to minor league deals and could easily end up in Louisville. But wouldn't that money have been better spent bolstering the arms in the bullpen?

Not so great of a start....

Yesterday was the first game of the spring for the Reds. I'd been looking forward to it for months. I had such high hopes. There was some good, but there was a lot of bad too.

Jeremy Affeldt pitched pretty well. He threw two innings. He gave up 1 R and 3 H. I was most impressed by the fact that he didn't walk anyone. I'm not ready to give up my feeling that he belongs in the pen, but he pitched fairly well. Jim Brower and Jared Burton both had good, strong appearances. Gary Majewski, on the other hand....ouch. A 162.00 ERA is never good. I was disappointed with Jon Coutlangus too, but let's be fair to him. He came into a huge mess that Majewski had created. Gregg Dobbs is a far better hitter than most people realize.

Offensively, not much to say in the positive. Jay Bruce started things off with a single. Jeff Keppinger had a single. The one offensive highlight was Adam Rosales hitting a home run. When you're down 8-0, though, what does that matter?

Give Bruce a Chance!

The Reds are rumored to be pursuing Kenny Lofton. Apparently they want him to hit leadoff and play centerfield. There is little doubt that Lofton is one of the best leadoff hitters of his generation. The problem is that he is 40 years old and his generation is passed. Why would we want a 40 yr old CF? We have a "can't miss" prospect in Jay Bruce. We have Norris Hopper. We have Ryan Freel. All of whom are better options than Lofton.


Let's be honest, we need someone who can play well defensively and cover significant ground in CF. Griffey doesn't play the field as well as he once did. Unfortunately, Adam Dunn plays the field as well as he always has. Hopper and Freel can cover some huge amounts of ground out there. Either of them would make up for some lack of range in LF and RF. It's said that Bruce's range isn't fantastic. However, Jay Bruce had more HRs last year than Freel and Hopper have in their careers combined. As important as defnese is, you cannot win without pushing across some runs.

So, how important is a leadoff hitter? Is it important enough to justify signing a very seasoned veteran instead of taking a chance on a young prospect? I'm a fan of speed. I love the stolen base. I love bunting. I love anything that makes the defense move around. It creates holes. It creates opportunities for mistakes. It forces the defense to play perfectly and defenses don't always play perfectly. But a leadoff hitter is only guaranteed to hit leadoff once per game.

Jay Bruce is the future of this franchise. The Kenny Lofton of the 90's would be an All-Star on this team. But this is 2008. It's time for some youth and promise. Bruce is the only logical choice to play CF. Hopper and Freel both have a tremendous amount of value to the club. Freel can play the backup role at several positions. Hopper can be used at any of the OF spots, as a pinch runner, late-inning defensive replacement for Dunn or as a pinch hitter. We have no need of Lofton. If we're going to go out and sign another OF, then why was Josh Hamilton traded to Texas? I suppose it could be worse.....there are some suggestions that they've talked to Corey Patterson....

Happy Pitchers and Catchers Day

In about an hour pitchers and catchers report for the Cincinnati Reds. Baseball is almost here.

I'm going to take this opportunity to predict who will make the 25 man roster for opening day. Honestly, this is based more on what I would like to see than it is what I expect to see.

Lineup:

SS Jeff Keppinger
CF Jay Bruce
RF Ken Griffey, Jr.
2B Brandon Phillips
LF Adam Dunn
3B Edwin Encarnacion
1B Joey Votto
C Dave Ross

Bench:

C/1B Javier Valentin
SS Alex Gonzalez
OF Norris Hopper
OF/IF Ryan Freel
1B Scott Hatteberg

Rotation:

Aaron Harang
Bronson Arroyo
Homer Bailey
Edinson Volquez
Matt Belisle

Bullpen:

Francisco Cordero (CL)
David Weathers
Jared Burton
Todd Coffey
Bobby Livingston
Jeremy Affeldt
Jon Coutlangus

The most surprising thing is Jeff Keppinger occupying the leadoff spot. (Though some may argue that it is surprising to see him in the starting lineup at all.) Who would you rather see there? Norris Hopper and Ryan Freel are the most qualified for the job. There is talk about Brandon Phillips getting a shot. It works for Alfonso Soriano (the only other 2B to ever go 30-30). I like Keppinger's consistency. Gonzalez may be a better defensive shortstop, but Keppinger showed himself to be capable last year (at SS for 2007: 47 games, 390.2 innings, .989 FP, 2 E). He is no where near as streaky of a hitter as Alex Gonzalez is. I'd like to see his controlled swing and patience at the top of the lineup. Jay Bruce in the two hole? Basically, it boils down to having no where else to put him and no one else to hit there. Joey Votto all the way down at 7th? It's merely an attempt to not have three lefties hit back-to-back-to-back. That is also why Junior is in the three hole and Phillips is at cleanup instead of the other way around. The bench has a ton of experience and versatility. Freel can pretty much play anywhere. Valentin can play 1B if needed. I'm sure Gonzalez could sub at 2B or 3B (or Keppinger could slide to one of those and Gonzalez could play SS). Hopper provides solid backup at each of the OF spots and makes for a great late-inning pinch runner. One thing I would like to see is more power off of the bench. Maybe Craig Wilson makes the team and we have to cut back a bit on bullpen?

The rotation is fairly straight forward with no surprises. I wouldn't complain if Belisle and Livingston swapped places. I would be surprised if Johnny Cueto were to start out in the majors. I'll be shocked, annoyed, irritated and irrate if Jeremy Affeldt starts out in the rotation. There are rumors still that the Reds are going after Joe Blanton from Oakland. Josh Fogg is still jobless despite being effective for Colorado last year and having some good times in Pittsburgh. However, barring a surprise move, this should be the Reds' opening rotation. I cannot believe I am saying this.....I like our bullpen. Cordero solidifies the closer role. Weathers will be outstanding as a setup guy. Burton's stuff is electric and he has closer of the future written all over him. Coffey worries me a bit, but I have high hopes for him. Having three lefties in the pen is exciting. Affeldt provides us with some veteran stability from the left side (and the best part is he is not Mike Stanton). He can also be the long man if needed. Coutlangus, aside from his fantastic name, excites me almost as much as Burton does. Livingston is a good option for spot starting and soaking up innnings.

My prediction....89 wins and a second place finish. We have the bats, we have the arms. I just don't know that we have enough to overtake the Cubbies. If things go our way, who knows. If Bailey, Bruce and Votto can live up to the hype, who knows. It should be an exciting season.

Who's catching?

Outside of the pitching staff, the most glaring weakness the Reds had last year was behind the plate. The majority of the games in 2007 were caught by a combination of David Ross and Javier Valentin. For some unknown reason, the Reds insisted on carrying three catchers for parts of last season when they continuously called up Chad Moeller, Ryan Hanigan and Ryan Jorgensen also spent some time behind the plate for the Reds last year. That collection of players simply is not enough. Coming into the spring Ross and Valentin appear to be the favorites to make the roster. Chad Moeller has moved on to the Dodgers. Jorgensen and Hanigan are both under contract, but should start the season in the minors. That leaves us with the same catching tandem that caught 90% of the innings last year.

Before we look at what we have, let's see what we could have acquired. Ivan Rodriguez, Brad Ausmus, Michael Barrett, Ramon Castro, Jason Kendall, Paul Lo Duca, Jorge Posada, Jose Molina and Yorvit Torrealba were all, potentially, free agents. Rodriguez, Castro, Torrealba, Barrett, Molina, and Posada all remained with their teams. That left Lo Duca (signed with Washington) and Kendall (signed with Milwaukee) on the free agent market. Honestly, not a very appealing thought. A couple of catchers could have been had via trade. Brian Schneider went from the Nationals to the Mets. Johnny Estrada went from Milwaukee to the Met. The Mets then released him and he signed with the Nationals. Pitchers and catchers report in less than a week, it seems any hope of fixing our catching problem via trade or free agency is gone. It will have to be done in house.

On the current active roster the Reds have Ross, Valentin, Hanigan, and Craig Tatum. Three catchers have been invited to spring training as non-roster invitees: Paul Bako, Alvin Colina and Chris Kroski. None of these players inspire the excitement that a Victor Martinez or Russell Martin would. We are going to be mediocre at best when it comes to catchers. Ross is the best bet. His bat can be a big plus in the lineup. He provides some power. The thing is, the Reds already have enough power. What they need is a defensive catcher who can call a good game and keep the other team's running attack down. That is why the Reds should have gone after Brian Schneider. Valentin was primarily used as a switch hitting pinch hitter under Jerry Narron. Once Pete Mackanin took over he started seeing more time behind the plate and improved defensively. Valentin had only 2 HRs in 243 ABs. Ross had 17 in 311 ABs. However, Ross barely ended the season above the Mendoza line and spent much of the season under it. Valentin at least provides a decent average (.276 in 2007, .251 for his career). We may as well ignore completely Bako, Colina, Kroski, Tatum and Hanigan. Unless one of them makes some shocking strides in the spring, they will be sent to the minors or released outright. Of that group, Hanigan has the best chance of pulling of the miracle considering the time he spent with the club last year; it's hard to be too excited about him considering he only played five major league games last year.

Offensively, Ross' big plus is his power. The upside for Valentin is his higher average and his ability to hit from both sides. Defensively, there's not a huge difference. Valentin caught 471.2 innings last year. He ended the season with a .997 FP (1 error), but a glaring 8 passed balls. Ross spent 837.1 innings behind the plate. He recorded a .993 FP (5 errors) and had 6 passed balls. If we could somehow combine Valentin's offense and Ross' defense, we'd have an acceptable receiver. Barring that, I think the only way to approach this is the same way we did last year. Ross will get the majority of the starts. Valentin will be used to give him a rest every few days and will be used as a pinch hitter. Ross is better defensively, but not significantly. Once Valentin got a chance to start more frequently under Mackanin, his defense improved. Maybe we can hope that he will blossom under Dusty Baker and become a solid catcher. I think that's too much to ask. It appears we can look forward to another season of mediocrity behind the plate. The best we can hope for is that Ross can approach his 2006 BA of .255 and stay far away from his 2007 results. In fact, if we can get the David Ross of 2006 (90 games, 247 AB, 21 HR, .255 BA, .985 FP, 8 E, 4 PB), things may not be as bleak as I imagine.

There is a bright spot. The Reds took five catchers in the 2007 draft. At least they realize this is a problem position and are taking some steps to improve.

Phillips faces arbitration

The crooked hat....the huge, infectious smile....the overwhelming aura of fun.....You just have to love the way Brandon Phillips plays. In what turned out to be a steal, he was acquired by the Reds in April of 2006 for minor leaguer Jeffrey Stevens. He was seen as a guy with all of the ability in the world, but too many problems to harnass that ability and excel on the field. He has proven people wrong since coming to Cincinnati. In 2007, he was easily the Reds' MVP and the best all around second baseman in the majors. He became just the third Red to go 30-30 and set a club record for most home runs by a second baseman. His numbers for last year were quite impressive:

AVG .288
Runs 106
Hits 187
2B 26
3B 6
HR 30
RBI 94
SB 32
SLG .485
FP .990

The most astounding number, by far, is his salary.....$407,500 for 2007. He was one of the best bargains in the majors last year. Now he is eligible for arbitration. He is asking for 4.2 million. The Reds have countered with 2.7 million. Due to the way MLB's arbitration works, he will get one or the other of these numbers. He deserves much more. Recently he was quoted as saying he wanted to be the next Barry Larkin (he actually said he would like to be better than Barry) and finish his career in Cincinnati. He brings so much excitement to the game. He is an All-Star caliber player, a team leader and a threat in every facet of the game. The Reds are silly for even arguing. The best player on the team wants to spend his entire career in the same uniform, sign him already.

I would like to think that the Reds will follow the Twins lead. Justin Morneau avoided arbitration by signing a one year deal worth 7.5 million. A week later they completed a deal that locks him up for six years at 80 million. When it comes to this arbitration hearing, it doesn't matter whether the Reds win or lose. What matters is what they do next. They need to get Phillips signed long term before he becomes too expensive. If they can get a six or seven or eight year deal worth about 10 million a year, they should be happy.

Saarloos vs Affeldt

This week the Reds signed Jeremy Affeldt to a one year deal worth about 3,000,000 dollars. Is he worth it? Is he a step up? What role will he fill?

He's a guy with decent stuff and some potential that hasn't yet been realized. He's known as a bit of a control guy who will throw strikes. The rumour is he will challange for a spot in the starting rotation. Failing that, he will be used out of the bullpen as a long reliever and occasional spot starter. Sound familiar? It should, the same was said about the signing of Kirk Saarloos last year.

So, let's compare...

Kirk Saarloos' Career....6 years, 28-30 record, 157 games, 482 IP, 5.00 ERA. With the Reds last year, Saarloos appeared in only 34 games. He threw a total of 42 innings. He managed, in that short time, to give up 8 HRs and hold a 7.17 ERA. He ended up making only 3 starts....which is probably for the best. He was supposed to be an insurance policy, a quality arm who could fill in when one of the starters went down. He ended up being just another guy standing on the mound and lobbing balls toward the plate. With how injured and ineffective the Reds rotation was last year, Saarloos had a great opportunity to come in and show what he could do. He showed it. It lead to him getting demoted to the Minors. He would get bounced back and forth between the Reds and the minors a couple of times last year. He totaled 18 appearances and 41 IP for Louisville last year.

Jeremy Affeldt's Career....6 years, 25-27 record, 286 games, 486 IP, 4.74 ERA. With the Rockies last year, Affeldt appeared in 75 games, threw 59 innings and held a respectable 3.51 ERA. He was an anchor in their bullpen. He also got some playoff experience as the Rockies shocked the world. Affeldt was suppose to be a young fire-balling starter when he first came up with KC. He's never really fulfilled that promise. He struggled as a starter. Most likely that's a product of being a starter for Kansas City rather than anything he did wrong. Since his transition to the pen upon moving to Colorado, he has been successful. The Reds claim he will fight for a spot in the rotation. His success as a starter has been limited.

Like most teams, the Reds need good arms coming out of the bullpen. That is where Affeldt should end up. He doesn't give up many HRs (only 3 in 59 IP last year). He walks more batters than he should (33 last year, about the same rate as Saarloos, actually). The Reds could use a solid starting pitcher, no doubt. What they need more than that is someone to bridge the gap between the starter and the back end of the bullpen. Cordero will be in the 9th, obviously. Weathers should hold down the 8th solidly. Those pesky 6th and 7th innings could provide some trouble, though, and this is where Affeldt could make his mark. Looking at their numbers, Affeldt is a step up from Saarloos....lower ERA, better HR/IP, better SO/IP, etc. Add to that, he's left handed. It will be intertesting to see if he is as significant of a step up from Saarloos as those numbers imply he will be. It is all going to rest on where he ends up. If they put him in the bullpen where he belongs, that contract will be worth every penny. If they try to use him as a starter, we should see him going the way of Saarloss, Milton and Lohse by the time the All-Star break rolls around. I just cannot understand why someone who has been so successful for the last season and a half as a relief pitcher would be considered as a potential starter.

How much do we need Bedard?

You cannot win a championship with bad starting pitching. That is one of the few statements about baseball that will always hold true. A potent offense can get you some success, no doubt. It may even get you into the playoffs. But good pitching shuts down good hitting consistently. If you want to build a championship caliber club, starting pitching is where to begin.

The Reds' starting rotation last year was every bit as bad as it has been in recent years. Harang was outstanding, of course. He finally garnered some Cy Young votes. Arroyo was little better than ok.....far too streaky. Belisle showed some flashes of brilliance and too many flashes of awfulness. Bailey is young and inexperienced. All four of them should be back in the rotation for 2008. Is that enough? Frankly, no.

The fifth spot will be given to Livingston or Volquez, most likely. I'm excited about Volquez. It makes me sad to say goodbye to Hamilton. The first game I attended at GABP I picked up a snazzy Josh Hamilton t-shirt. I love the kid. He's a great story, hits well and has a cannon for an arm. That said, Volquez destroyed minor league hitters in Texas' system. When he came up last year he showed some good stuff. He was inconsistent, but he's a rookie and that's to be expected. Johnny Cueto also gives fans a lot to be excited about. Hopefully he will be able to compete for the final starting spot.

The darkhorse final piece of the rotation is Erik Bedard. The trade rumors have been circling around for weeks now. It's said that the O's want two of the Reds' top four prospects. Adding someone of Bedard's ability might make Cincinnati's starting five the best in the division. Bedard may have won the AL Cy Young last year if injuries had not derailed him. Having Harang and Bedard as the 1-2 would put the Reds in serious contention for the division title. It would take some pressure off of Arroyo, Bailey and Belisle.

It would be a great move for the franchise. However, I think the asking price is too high. Votto and Bruce are the future of this franchise. For some teams it is acceptable and right to trade future value for present success (see the Tigers/Marlins deal). It's not right for this franchise at this time. Adding Cordero and solidifying the bullpen has already increased their chances to win the division enough. Every team needs a starting pitcher of Bedard's ability. The question is not really how much do you need him, but at what cost. And, in this instance, the cost is too high. The NL Central is the weakest division in baseball. The moves the Reds have already made have put them in a position to challenge for the division crown. The upside of Bedard is huge....high strikeout totals, low era, etc. What worries me about him is that he has never cracked the 200IP mark and his injury troubles last year. Can he be effective and good for 200+ innings? Can he make over 30 starts? Is he worth two of Bailey, Votto, Bruce and Cueto? The answer is probably no for each of those. We don't need him that much.

Welcome to Walt Jocketty

It's been announced today that the Reds have hired Walt Jocketty as a "special advisor" to Bob Castellini. That's rather exciting. He's a three time execitive of the year. He has over 30 years of experience in baseball. Jocketty put together several winning clubs and great trade deals as the GM for the Cardinals for the last 13 years. He will report directly to Castellini. The description of the position makes him sound like a co-GM, but officially he is only a special advisor. Jocketty had been in contact with several teams. He chose the Reds because the others would have had him answering to the GM and he has a working history with Castellini. According to an article on the Reds main site, Jocketty and Krivsky are on the same page with what they want to do with the club. I hope this goes well. Let's hope that Jocketty is not just the GM-in-waiting. Though, even if he is, we could do much, much worse than having Jocketty as our GM.